Trump Administration Set to Release Delayed Inflation Data Amid Social Security COLA Concerns
Bureau of Labor Statistics Navigates Shutdown to Deliver Crucial CPI Data
In a dynamic maneuver to keep vital economic data flowing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), under executive direction, is recalling some staff to develop the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report despite the government shutdown. This move aims to maintain the scheduled release of the CPI data, initially set for October 15, though uncertainty remains regarding its timely publication.
Critical Timing and the Impact on Social Security Payments
According to a Trump administration official, the CPI data is expected to be out before the November 1 deadline. This timeline is pivotal for calculating the annual increase in Social Security payments. Without the September CPI data, the regular cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits, slated for implementation in January, might face delays. Throughout the shutdown, Social Security benefits continue to be distributed.
Staff Recall to Ensure Data Delivery
Since the onset of the government shutdown on October 1, when federal funding ceased, BLS operations were effectively suspended, with only one employee assigned to work full-time to maintain essential functions. To swiftly compile the September CPI report, additional personnel are being temporarily recalled as necessary.
Implications of a Delayed CPI Release
The October halt in BLS activities also affected other critical reports, such as the monthly jobs report, traditionally published on the first Friday of each month. Such delays risk impacting the Social Security COLA announcement, as the COLA is contingent on third-quarter inflation metrics, including September data.
Anticipating the 2026 COLA Announcement
The looming release of the 2026 COLA is under increased scrutiny, with senior citizens and persons with disabilities among the more than 74 million Americans reliant on Social Security payments. Recent years have seen a decline in inflation, leading to lower adjustments, such as the 2.5% increase for this year. The Social Security Administration has yet to comment on the exact timing of the 2026 COLA announcement.
Emegypt continues to monitor developments and will provide updates as they become available.
