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Escalating Protests in Madagascar See Military Defections

Protests against the government in Madagascar are gaining momentum as military support increases. On Saturday, October 11, some sections of the country’s military joined civilians on the streets of Antananarivo, urging soldiers to refuse orders to open fire on demonstrators. The pressure is intensifying on President Andry Rajoelina.

Key Developments in Madagascar’s Crisis

Since September 25, Madagascar has been rocked by substantial protests, largely driven by the Gen Z movement. What began as a demonstration against water and electricity shortages has evolved into a broader revolt against the government.

• Protesters are increasingly vocal in their criticism of President Rajoelina, 51, calling for his resignation along with that of the Senate President.
• Recent demonstrations on October 11 are the largest since the movement began, now bolstered by military personnel joining the cause and calling for disobedience to protect civilians.
• A UN report, strongly contested by the Malagasy government, claims 22 people have died since the protests began, with over a hundred injured. President Rajoelina disputes these figures, suggesting the death toll is much lower and describing the casualties as “looters and vandals.”

Military Calls for Non-violence and Solidarity

The prospect of an armed intervention has been complicated by calls from elements of the military for their peers to defy orders to fire on civilians. The army unit known as CAPSAT, stationed near Antananarivo, has made public appeals for unity and restraint among the security forces.

In a video message, CAPSAT soldiers urged their fellow military personnel, police, and gendarmes not to be complicit in acts against civilians, stating, “Let us refuse to be paid to shoot our friends, brothers, and sisters.” They highlighted socio-economic challenges, such as youth unemployment and systemic corruption, as underlying issues driving public unrest.

Air Travel Disruptions amid Unrest

The ongoing turmoil has also impacted air travel, with Air France suspending flights to Madagascar until Monday, citing safety concerns.

Uncertain Future for Madagascar

As of the latest updates, President Rajoelina has not made any public appearances or statements addressing the escalating situation. Reports indicate scenes of looting in parts of Antananarivo, raising further questions about law and order in the region.

Meanwhile, amidst a prevailing atmosphere of tension, Antananarivo’s iconic Place du 13-Mai witnessed moments of celebration with demonstrators waving Malagasy flags; however, the once-ubiquitous military and law enforcement presence had notably diminished.

The future of leadership in Madagascar remains unclear, should President Rajoelina step down as demanded by protestors. Military figures, such as Colonel Mickaël Randrianirina, have openly called for the removal of key government figures, leaving the question of succession unanswered. “We will see,” Colonel Randrianirina remarked when asked about potential future governance, suggesting uncertainty remains the only constant in Madagascar’s volatile political climate.