Taliban Accuse Pakistan Following Kabul Explosions Amid Efforts to Engage with India
Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions Escalate Amid Allegations and Explosive Incidents
Mounting Tensions in South Asia: Explosion Causes Blame Game
An explosion in Kabul and another in eastern Afghanistan’s Paktika province have fueled tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban. The incidents occurred against a backdrop of shifting allegiances in South Asia, prompting concerns in Islamabad. Initially, the Taliban downplayed the explosion in Kabul, with their government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirming that the cause was under investigation and reassuring the public that no injuries had been reported. However, the Afghan Ministry of Defence later accused Pakistan of orchestrating the blasts.
Strained Relations Between Pakistan and Afghanistan
The explosions have exacerbated already deteriorating relations between the two countries. Since the Taliban took power in August 2021, Pakistan has accused the group of harboring the Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, contributing to a surge of attacks on Pakistani security forces. Islamabad’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar visited Kabul in April to mend ties, yet the violence has persisted, with recent statistics from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies showing near-record levels of conflict.
Speculation and Denials: Pakistan’s Role in the Explosions
Social media speculation suggests Pakistan targeted senior TTP leaders, including chief Noor Wali Mehsud, though Afghan officials have declared Mehsud unharmed. During a news conference, Pakistan’s army spokesman neither confirmed nor denied these allegations but emphasized that Afghanistan is being used for operations against Pakistan. The situation risks further deterioration as Islamabad conducts its mass expulsion campaign of Afghan refugees.
Historical Context and Recent Developments
Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the 1980s, initially due to the Soviet invasion and later during the Taliban’s periods of power. Currently, Islamabad’s expulsion efforts have returned nearly a million individuals to Afghanistan since November 2023. However, incidents like these explosions keep raising the stakes. The last significant targeted attack in Kabul happened in 2022 when al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was eliminated in a US drone strike.
Security Analysts Weighing In
Experts emphasized the potential ramifications of cross-border strikes. Tameem Bahiss, a Kabul-based security analyst, warned that any attack publicly acknowledged as Pakistan’s doing could worsen relations and cooperation attempts on countering the TTP. Meanwhile, Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, a security analyst from Islamabad, saw potential preemptive strikes as a calculated warning following recent incidents within Pakistan.
Potential Consequences: Aspirations and Anxieties
Security analysts anticipate that any aggressive action, such as targeting TTP elements in Afghanistan, could backfire for Pakistan. Such moves could strengthen TTP recruitment, possibly even garnering sympathetic support among Afghans. Additionally, targeting TTP leadership could provoke retaliation through escalated attacks in Pakistan, a concern echoed widely by analysts and regional observers.
