Mexican Lawmaker Announces End of Canada US Mexico Trade Deals

Recent remarks by Mexican lawmaker Germán Martínez Cázares signal a pivotal change in trade relations between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. The veteran politician indicated that the era of trilateral trade agreements may be coming to an end, with a shift towards bilateral agreements instead.

End of Trilateral Trade Agreements

Martínez Cázares, a former member of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party, addressed the issue during a session of Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies. He highlighted that soaring nationalism from the U.S. and Mexican administrations threatens the survival of current agreements. The lawmaker stated, “We are entering into uncertain territory,” as growing sentiments in Mexico suggest the U.S. may change its approach to trade.

Current Trade Dynamics

Despite the call for bilateral agreements, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has insisted on its commitment to maintaining trilateral trade agreements. Sheinbaum remarked that there are important bilateral discussions that can take place under the existing framework of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), known in Mexico as the Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC).

Following Martínez’s comments, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed openness to pursuing “different deals” with individual countries. This statement aligns with remarks made by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who questioned the benefits of the bundled trilateral agreements.

Trade Statistics and Investments

• In 2024, Mexico ranked as Canada’s third-largest trading partner.
• Trade between Canada and Mexico reached approximately $56 billion, a steep increase from approximately $5 billion in 1994.
• Mexico exported a variety of goods to Canada, including machinery, medical equipment, and produce.
• In 2024, direct Canadian investment in Mexico amounted to about $46.5 billion.

The automotive industry is a vital sector in this trade relationship, with over 60 Canadian car part companies operating in Mexico and employing around 30,000 workers. Canadian companies are also significant players in Mexico’s mining and energy sectors.

Controversial Customs Law Proposal

The Sheinbaum administration is facing criticism for a proposed overhaul of the customs system, which aims to tighten controls and address corruption. Critics argue that the changes could complicate trade and lead to additional costs for importers.

Deputies from the opposition expressed concern that altering import rules during an active trade agreement would jeopardize compliance with CUSMA. Nonetheless, Morena supporters contend that such reforms are necessary to combat tax evasion and corruption.

Future Outlook

As discussions about bilateral agreements gain traction, industry figures like Ottawa businessman Etienne Poisson remain optimistic about the future of trade between Canada and Mexico. He emphasized the need to adapt to evolving trade dynamics while still maintaining free trade agreements.

The path forward for North American trade remains unclear, with ongoing negotiations likely to redefine the relationships between these neighboring countries.