Why a Big Loss Could Be San Marino’s Best Path to World Cup Qualification Hopes The Athletic
San Marino, a small enclave in Italy, is at the bottom of FIFA’s world rankings. Despite this, they still harbor bleak hopes for World Cup qualification. The microstate, nestled in north-central Italy, has fewer than 34,000 residents. It has not had much success in international soccer, with a record that includes winning only three out of 219 matches. All victories came against Liechtenstein in the Nations League. This tournament, introduced by UEFA in 2018, aims to minimize friendlies by providing meaningful matches among similarly ranked teams.
Nations League Route for Qualifiers
The Nations League helps countries like San Marino in the qualification process for major tournaments. Four top-ranked group winners in the Nations League, who did not automatically qualify, can enter a seeded play-off system. San Marino topped its Nations League D group, thanks to two victories over Liechtenstein and a draw against Gibraltar. This situation is pivotal for San Marino, as derived from their UEFA qualifying group and overall positioning.
European World Cup Play-offs
- 12 European spots are claimed by winning the qualifying groups.
- The remaining four are through UEFA’s 16-team play-offs scheduled for March 2026.
- The play-offs divide 16 teams into four paths, each containing semi-finals and a final.
- Teams include 12 group-stage runners-up and the four best-ranked Nations League winners.
Tough Group Dynamics
San Marino faces stiff competition within its qualifying group. Currently, they are fifth, with zero points from seven games. Austria leads, while Bosnia and Romania trail behind. San Marino’s fate hinges on these teams’ performances, particularly Romania’s. Romania’s last matches against Bosnia and San Marino could decide the group standings. A significant loss to Romania might unexpectedly benefit San Marino’s qualification chances by pushing Romania ahead of Bosnia, opening a potential play-off spot for them. However, any deliberate play to lose could attract FIFA sanctions attributed to match manipulation.
Challenging History Against Major Nations
San Marino’s track record in international competitions reflects their struggle. Their recent qualification losses include defeats to Cyprus, Romania, Bosnia, and Austria. Historically, they have experienced significant losses, including a notorious 13-0 defeat by Germany in 2006. Despite such results, San Marino caused moments of surprise, such as scoring the fastest goal against England in 1993 World Cup qualifiers. The team’s peak came with a ranking of 118 in FIFA’s list around that period. However, they have remained at the bottom of the standings as of November 2023.
While San Marino’s football journey has mostly been defined by setbacks, their quest for qualification remains. They hope that a confluence of favorable results from other teams and the unpredictable nature of football might align in their favor.
