BLS International Shares Crash 18 Percent Amid Government Ban with Analysts Predicting Possible 100 Percent Upside

BLS International faced significant stock turmoil following a directive from India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). On October 9, 2025, the MEA prohibited the company from bidding on new visa and passport outsourcing contracts with Indian embassies and missions for the upcoming two years.

Impact of the Government Ban

The MEA cited unspecified court issues and service complaints as the reasons for this ban. However, it’s important to note that existing contracts remain unaffected. BLS reported that ongoing projects, which account for approximately 12% of its revenue in the first quarter of FY26, will continue without disruption.

Shareholder Reaction

Following the announcement, BLS’s stock plummeted by about 18% on October 13, reaching a 52-week low of ₹276.95. The shares later stabilized between ₹290 and ₹300, reflecting a decrease of roughly 12-13%. This marked the steepest single-day decline for BLS since 2020, rendering it the most significant loser on the small-cap index.

Year-to-Date Performance

Year-to-date, BLS’s stock has decreased nearly 39%, while the small-cap index saw a modest drop of about 4%. Despite this setback, the company’s shares have surged approximately 1,400% over the past five years, indicating a substantial long-term growth trajectory.

Limited Financial Impact

Analysts suggest that the MEA ban may not significantly affect BLS’s overall financial health. The contributions from Indian government missions are relatively minor, accounting for around 12% of BLS’s revenue and roughly 8% of its EBITDA. The company’s core operations in over 60 countries continue unaffected.

Company’s Strategic Response

BLS International referred to the MEA directive as a “procedural development.” Management is actively seeking to resolve the situation and has hinted at potential legal action. They reassured stakeholders about the robustness of operations and cash flows, emphasizing their diversified business portfolio that spans the US, UAE, and Europe.

Future Projections

Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about BLS’s outlook. Despite the reputational risks associated with the ban, many experts perceive the current stock dip as a buying opportunity. BLS’s consensus 12-month price target hovers around ₹604, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 100% from current levels.

• Nuvama Securities maintains a BUY rating with a target of ₹637.
• Bloomberg data indicates an implied target of approximately ₹665, indicating a 125% upside.

Market Environment

As of mid-October 2025, global market conditions remain mixed, with investors faced with both optimism and uncertainty. Despite the challenges, BLS’s diversified global presence should help mitigate the impacts of the MEA’s directive. However, sustained pressures from governmental actions may hinder future growth.

In summary, while BLS International’s immediate future appears challenged by the MEA ban, its solid international footprint and diverse business operations could foster resilience. Analysts will continue to monitor the situation closely for any significant developments that might influence BLS’s market position.