ASML Anticipates Increased Export Restrictions Impacting Business

ASML, a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is navigating challenges posed by escalating export restrictions. These limitations mainly stem from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. CEO Peter Fouquet has emphasized the impact of this geopolitical tension on the company’s growth projections.

Recent Financial Performance

ASML reported impressive figures for the third quarter, achieving a revenue of €7.5 billion. This growth is attributed to a wider adoption of its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenues to reach €9.5 billion, projecting a total annual revenue of €32.5 billion for 2023, which represents a 15% increase over 2024. The order book has also seen substantial growth, increasing by €5.4 billion, with €3.6 billion coming from EUV machine orders.

Future Outlook

For 2026, ASML’s outlook remains cautious. Fouquet refrained from using the term “growth,” likely to mitigate potential negative market reactions similar to those experienced in the second quarter. He noted that revenue in 2026 is expected to match or exceed that of 2025. Currently, 42% of the company’s revenue comes from China, which is keen to develop semiconductor capabilities using ASML’s advanced technology. However, this reliance is anticipated to decrease due to tightening export controls.

Impact of Trade Relations

• The U.S. has restricted the export of advanced chips to China.
• China has implemented export controls on military-related materials.
• Recent trade tariffs impact maritime shipping and agricultural imports, including U.S. soybeans, valued at €11 billion last year.

Both nations are expected to navigate these issues, as their economies are interdependent. This ongoing trade war is projected to have temporary effects on ASML’s operations.

Long-Term Growth Aspirations

ASML’s long-term revenue target remains between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030. This projection indicates a projected annual growth rate of about 10%, with expectations shaped by investments in data centers, AI, and chips. Achieving the upper limits of this growth will likely require a reduction in export restrictions or significant innovations from the company.

As ASML continues to adapt to the complexities of international trade and technological advancements, its leading position in the semiconductor market remains influential in driving industry growth.