Escalating Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Sparks Concern
Escalating Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Sparks Concern
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has recently become a source of significant concern. Tensions are rising as both nations face the possibility of renewed conflict. Ethiopian leaders have openly accused Eritrea of planning military action against Ethiopia, potentially in collaboration with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
On October 14, 2025, Ethiopia submitted a formal complaint to the United Nations, claiming that Eritrea is forming a military force named “Tsimdo.” The situation has become more precarious, particularly after Ethiopia asserted its right to access a maritime route. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described previous failures to secure a route to the Red Sea, which he labeled as a “mistake made 30 years ago.”
Historical Context of Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations
The conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not new. After Eritrea’s declaration of independence in the 1990s, a two-year war ensued, concluded by the Algiers Agreement. Despite a truce, the two countries maintained a tense relationship for over two decades without diplomatic ties. In 2018, the leadership of both nations announced peace, which included official visits and the reopening of borders.
However, the dynamics shifted again in 2020 when Eritrea became embroiled in Ethiopia’s internal conflict against the TPLF, supporting the Ethiopian government. This new conflict resulted in significant loss of life and was formally ended with the Pretoria Agreement. Yet, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea weakened, leading to renewed tensions.
The Implications of Renewed Conflict
As Ethiopia explores its claim to access the Red Sea, concerns mount about the potential for military engagement. International law expert Bayisa Waqwayya warned that Ethiopia lacks legal grounds to justify the military occupation of Eritrean territory, particularly the strategic port of Asab. He emphasized that any aggression could escalate into a larger conflict, which would have detrimental effects for both nations.
General Yohannes Gabremasqel, a former Ethiopian military leader, indicated that a new conflict, if it occurs, would likely differ from previous wars in duration and intensity. On the other hand, some analysts believe that should hostilities erupt, they would involve heavy weaponry and result in severe humanitarian and economic losses, especially for Ethiopia.
Potential Outcomes
If a new war arises, both countries face the risk of significant casualties and economic devastation. Analysts fear that Ethiopia’s troubled economy could bear more weight than Eritrea’s due to its reliance on internal resources. Furthermore, ongoing conflicts, such as the one in the Amhara region, compound the precarious situation for Ethiopia’s stability.
The situation remains fluid, and the international community is closely observing these developments. Diplomatic dialogue is crucial to prevent escalation and foster lasting peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
