Low Enthusiasm from Fine Gael Supporters Toward Heather Humphreys Grows
As the 2025 presidential election approaches, recent polling data indicates a significant lead for Independent candidate Catherine Connolly. With a current support rate of 38%, Connolly outpaces Heather Humphreys, the Fine Gael representative, who sits at 20%.
Poll Insights and Voter Trends
The latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll also highlights the challenges facing the candidates. Jim Gavin, who recently concluded his campaign, garnered only 5% of the support, signaling potential voter confusion regarding his status. Notably, 18% of respondents remain undecided, while 12% stated they would not participate in the voting process.
A unique aspect of this election is the rise of a campaign advocating vote spoiling. Approximately 6% of voters are expected to spoil their ballots as a form of protest. This sentiment is echoed throughout various demographics, with political dissatisfaction prevalent among potential voters.
Electoral Process and Candidate Viability
Throughout this election cycle, there have been frustrations regarding the nomination process. A striking 55% of voters believe that constitutional changes are necessary to make it easier for candidates to run. One notable contender, Maria Steen, almost made the ballot but fell short by two nominations. Public opinion supports her inclusion, with 45% favoring her candidacy.
As candidate Connolly maintains her lead, Humphreys struggles to garner enthusiasm among her party’s supporters. While 56% of Fine Gael voters plan to choose Humphreys, a notable 22% are considering Connolly. In contrast, Sinn Féin supporters overwhelmingly favor Connolly, with 63% backing her over Humphreys.
Demographics and Turnout Factors
Demographic trends reveal that Connolly is particularly popular among younger voters, securing 44% support from those under 35, while Humphreys attracts just 12% from the same group. Notably, voter turnout could significantly impact the outcome. Among Connolly’s supporters, 83% indicate their intent to vote, compared to 78% of Humphreys’ base.
Moreover, half of the respondents expressed a lack of representation by the current candidates. This sentiment may contribute to lower turnout, potentially benefiting Connolly in the final tally.
Implications of Candidate Withdrawals
With Gavin’s withdrawal, his second-preference votes might influence the standings. Among those who initially supported him, 36% would prefer Connolly while 35% would switch to Humphreys. This distribution could marginally close the gap between the leading candidates.
As election day approaches, uncertainties abound. In past referendums, polling dynamics often shift closer to the vote, suggesting that a tighter contest could emerge. However, a major upset appears unlikely unless new substantial developments arise in the final days of campaigning.
