Reform UK Edges Ahead in Tight Caerphilly By-Election Race

In a surprising turn of events, Reform UK has gained a slim lead over Plaid Cymru in the upcoming Caerphilly Senedd by-election. A recent Survation poll, commissioned by Camlas Public Affairs, shows Reform UK at 42%, just ahead of Plaid Cymru’s 38%. Meanwhile, Welsh Labour has seen its support plummet to 12%, marking a staggering decline in a constituency it has dominated for over a century.

Polling Insights and Voter Demographics

If the polling results hold true during the ballot next Thursday, this could signify a historic shift in Welsh political dynamics, breaking Labour’s long-standing stronghold.

Voter Breakdown by Age

• Older Voters: Reform UK has garnered significant support from older demographics, with 49% of voters aged 55 and above indicating their preference for the party.
• Disillusioned Conservatives: About 70% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 are now siding with Reform UK.
• Young Voters: In contrast, Plaid Cymru has found its base among younger voters, with 50% of those aged 18-34 planning to support them.

Labour’s Declining Influence

Plaid Cymru has also captured nearly a third (31%) of Labour’s voters from the last election, alongside attracting nearly 20% of former Conservative supporters. The data reflects a serious fragmentation within Labour’s traditional voter base. Only one-third of Labour’s 2021 supporters intend to stay loyal, with over half now leaning towards Reform or Plaid.

Collapse of Traditional Parties

The polling reveals a dramatic decline in support for both Labour and Conservative parties in Caerphilly. In the 2021 Senedd election, they collectively achieved 63% of the vote. However, the current poll suggests this number has drastically decreased to just 16%.

Expert Commentary

Rhodri ab Owen, managing director of Camlas Public Affairs, expressed that the by-election is being closely monitored as a precursor to future trends heading into the 2026 Senedd elections. “The battle lines of Welsh politics have been redrawn,” he noted, highlighting Labour’s alarming 34-point drop in support.

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, indicated this electoral shift signals an impending transformation in Welsh politics. “If replicated nationally, it could end Labour’s century-long winning streak in Caerphilly and conclude over twenty years of Labour’s dominance in Wales,” he stated.

Context of the By-Election

This by-election was initiated following the death of Labour MS Hefin David and stands as one of the last elections under the current electoral framework before reforms take effect for the 2026 Senedd election.