La Niña Winter Outlook What It Means for Arizona Snowfall

La Niña, characterized by cooler ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, has set in and is expected to persist through winter. This natural phenomenon often shifts the jet stream northward, resulting in drier-than-average conditions in Arizona and the southwest.

Impact on Arizona’s Winter Weather

While La Niña typically leads to reduced precipitation in Arizona, it does not completely rule out the possibility of significant snowfall. Historical data from Flagstaff over the past five winters provides insights into these varying patterns.

Flagstaff Snowfall Records

• Four out of the last five winters were influenced by La Niña.
• The winter of 2023-2024 experienced El Niño, resulting in 68.8 inches of snow, about 10 inches above average.
• Three of the recent La Niña winters recorded below-normal snowfall, including a mere 8.5 inches last year.
• Conversely, the La Niña winter of 2022-2023 saw an exceptional 115.5 inches of snowfall.

Forecasting Arizona’s Snowfall

The tendency for below-normal snowfall during La Niña years suggests a similar pattern may occur this winter. However, the significant snowfall in 2022-2023 demonstrates the unpredictability of La Niña’s impact.

Experts believe Arizona could face below-average snowfall, yet anomalies in previous years indicate that predictions remain uncertain.