Bitcoin Matches Weekly CME Gap Reflecting 2024 Reversal Pattern Could $130K Be Next

The cryptocurrency landscape is experiencing significant attention as Bitcoin exhibits a bullish pattern reminiscent of prior market rallies. Analysts are noting that the leading cryptocurrency resembles the technical configurations it demonstrated before a substantial price increase in late 2024.

Current Market Performance and Predictions

Bitcoin has maintained a higher low structure, indicating stability and potential for growth. Analysts from RektCapital observe a developing bullish divergence in daily charts. This condition could pave the way for Bitcoin to approach the $130,000 mark before the end of the fourth quarter of this year.

Market Sentiment Challenges

Despite these bullish indicators, market sentiment is currently at one of its lowest points since 2017. Traders express feelings of exhaustion and uncertainty, with many, including seasoned investors, struggling compared to the highs of 2020-2021.

• Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 recently, leading to speculation about a market top.
• Negative funding rates on major exchanges such as Binance suggest potential local bottoms.
• On-chain data indicates significant outflows from spot exchanges, hinting at accumulation despite market fear.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Critical Pivot

Since March, Bitcoin’s performance has been dwarfed by gold, which increased by 28.12%. Historically, Bitcoin has surged after gold’s rallies begin to wane. Current data indicates that gold’s relative strength index (RSI) has reached a staggering 92, suggesting it may be approaching its peak.

Previous instances where gold led have resulted in major Bitcoin price increases, notably in August 2020 and April 2025. A similar trend could foreseeably emerge, positioning Bitcoin on a path toward $130,000.

Volatility Indicators

Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands are widening to unprecedented levels. This scenario has historically been a precursor to significant price increases. Notably, Bitcoin has only traded negatively halfway through October previously on six occasions, all of which concluded positively by month’s end.

Macro-Economic Factors Affecting Bitcoin

From a macroeconomic perspective, recent data from the CME suggests a 96.7% chance of the Federal Reserve enacting a rate cut this month. Such measures typically enhance liquidity, creating an environment conducive to Bitcoin’s growth.

However, potential risks loom on the horizon. Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, highlights the precarious balance between liquidity advantages and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Should market stability falter, Bitcoin could face downward pressure, potentially falling below $110,000.

Conclusion: Two Possible Outcomes for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s future trajectory hinges on a myriad of factors. If liquidity conditions improve and institutional interest remains strong, a bullish rally toward $132,000 is conceivable. Conversely, potential macroeconomic challenges could see Bitcoin retreat to lower levels.