Top College Football Teams Are Tighter Than Ever Leading to More Exciting Upsets
Advanced metrics have highlighted a notable transformation in college football rankings from the 2019 season. The difference between leading teams and those ranked lower, such as the 17th, has significantly decreased. This narrowing gap leads to a surge in upsets, making the battles for the upcoming 12-team College Football Playoff uncertain and exhilarating.
Top College Football Teams Are Tighter Than Ever
The SP+ advanced ranking system from ESPN underscores this phenomenon. SP+ is designed as a predictive tool that evaluates the efficiency of teams on offense, defense, and special teams. Unlike resume metrics, it provides a forward-looking view, akin to spreads used by sportsbooks.
In the current 2025 season, the difference between the top-ranked team and the 17th is just one score. This is a stark contrast to 2019 when it was three scores. Such tight gaps are contributing to more unexpected outcomes in games.
Close Competition Among Leading Teams
- Ohio State Buckeyes lead the rankings with an SP+ rating of 27.6.
- The LSU Tigers, ranked 17th, have a rating of 19.5.
- Ohio State is only a seven-point favorite against LSU on a neutral field.
The ranking slots between 5th and 15th showcase an even tighter competition. Texas A&M Aggies, placed 5th, have a 22.2 rating. Following closely are teams such as Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Missouri, all within a one-point rating difference from Texas A&M.
Anticipated Thrills and Upsets
Analysis reveals that compared to 2019, top teams in 2025 have slightly dipped in quality, while those ranked 9th to 25th have improved. This shift is attributed to the Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) initiatives, which have impacted team compositions.
| Upcoming Week 8 Projections | Score Difference |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame vs. USC | 3 points |
| Georgia vs. Ole Miss | 1 point |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee | 2 points |
| Vanderbilt vs. LSU | Neck and neck |
| Utah vs. BYU | Close competition |
This competitive landscape means audiences can expect unprecedented parity, frequent upsets, and thrilling close games. It’s increasingly challenging to predict victors, especially as even the best teams face stiff competition from lower-ranked adversaries.
Such dynamics promise a season full of excitement and unpredictability, enhancing the allure of college football.
