China Halts US Soybean Imports in September for First Time in Seven Years

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China Halts US Soybean Imports in September for First Time in Seven Years

In September 2023, China made headlines by halting all U.S. soybean imports. This marks the first time since November 2018 that shipments from the U.S. have dropped to zero.

Trade Tensions Impacting U.S. Soybean Imports

The abrupt decline in U.S. soybean imports is attributed to the ongoing trade disputes between China and the United States. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs indicated that imports fell sharply from 1.7 million metric tons a year prior to zero.

Rise in South American Soybean Imports

In stark contrast, Brazil has solidified its dominance in supplying soybeans to China. In September 2023, Brazilian shipments surged by 29.9% year-on-year, totaling 10.96 million tons. This influx accounted for 85.2% of all soybeans imported by China.

  • U.S. soybean imports: 0 metric tons
  • Brazilian soybean imports: 10.96 million tons
  • Argentina’s soybean imports: 1.17 million tons (up 91.5%)

Overall, China’s total soybean imports reached 12.87 million metric tons in September, marking the second-highest level on record. This decline in U.S. imports is largely a result of tariffs imposed by China and a depletion of older U.S. supplies.

Potential Supply Concerns

Experts warn that China may face a soybean supply gap between February and April next year if trade negotiations do not yield favorable results. With Brazilian shipments already significantly increased, the availability of U.S. soybeans remains uncertain.

“If a trade deal does not materialize, U.S. farmers could face significant losses,” stated industry analyst Johnny Xiang of AgRadar Consulting. “Moreover, we aren’t sure how much old-crop stock is still available.”

Current Trade Landscape

This year, from January to September, China imported 63.7 million tons of soybeans from Brazil—an increase of 2.4%—and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, reflecting a growth of 31.8%. Despite the halt in new U.S. soybean purchases, American imports for the year remain at 16.8 million tons.

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are showing signs of life again, hinting at potential resolutions. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism over reaching a soybean deal soon, which may change the current trajectory of import trends.