Texas Winter Forecast: Updated Odds on a Chilly Season Ahead

The winter forecast for Texas indicates a potential for interesting weather patterns this season. With meteorological fall almost over, Texans are wondering if the mild temperatures will carry into winter.

Current Weather Trends in Texas

Since September 1, San Antonio has recorded average high temperatures of 91.9 degrees Fahrenheit. This temperature is only three degrees cooler than the average during the summer months. This fall is on track to be one of the warmest on record, with the possibility of becoming the second-warmest October for the city.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook for Texas

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the winter outlook shows a favorable trend for warmer temperatures across much of the southern United States. This includes most of Texas during the meteorological winter, which lasts from December 1 to February 28.

Temperature Predictions

• San Antonio:
  • 41% chance of above-average temperatures
  • 33% chance of near-average temperatures
  • 26% chance of below-average temperatures
• Austin: 28% chance of below-average temperatures
• Waco: 30% chance of below-average temperatures
• Dallas: 33% chance of below-average temperatures

Precipitation Outlook

For precipitation, Central, South, and West Texas are expected to be drier than normal. Specifically, in San Antonio:

• 42% chance of below-average rainfall
• 33% chance of near-normal precipitation
• 25% chance of wetter conditions

Impact of La Niña

The current weather patterns are influenced by La Niña, which has officially returned. This phenomenon typically leads to a semi-permanent system of high-pressure in the northern Pacific Ocean.

During La Niña winters, Texas tends to experience:

• Fewer cold fronts
• Warmer and drier conditions, often leading to above-normal warmth

From 1950 onwards, about 65% of La Niña winters have resulted in above-average temperatures for San Antonio, averaging 1.3 degrees warmer than other winters.

Farmers’ Almanac Forecast

In contrast, the Farmers’ Almanac forecasts a “wetter-than-average winter” with multiple cold snaps for Texas. They suggest northern regions may see opportunities for snow, although chances are lower in the south.

While the Farmers’ Almanac has a long history of predicting weather, its accuracy has been called into question in a University of Illinois study. This study found that the almanac’s temperature forecasts were correct about 51% of the time, making them only slightly better than random chance.

Conclusion

As winter approaches, Texas weather remains unpredictable. While NOAA indicates a warmer season, alternate forecasts suggest possible colder and wetter conditions. Residents should prepare for a season of variability, keeping an eye on evolving weather patterns.