Are Democrats Positioned to Win the Shutdown Standoff as They Dominate the Blame Game

The ongoing federal government shutdown is now the second-longest on record, marking Day 21. If the impasse continues into early November, it could surpass the current record of 35 days set during the first Trump administration. This situation reflects a complex blame game where both parties are reluctant to show signs of backing down.
Current Dynamics of the Shutdown
Historically, it is typical for the party that makes extraneous policy demands to bear the brunt of the blame during shutdowns. In this scenario, Democrats are advocating for an extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies. Public sentiment towards using shutdowns as leverage is overwhelmingly negative. However, polling data indicates that Democrats currently enjoy a relative advantage in public opinion regarding this shutdown.
Public Opinion Trends
Recent polls demonstrate that Americans are attributing more blame to congressional Republicans compared to Democrats. According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted from October 15-20, the blame ratio stands at 50% for Republicans and 43% for Democrats. A CNBC poll from October 8-12 showed an even larger gap, with 53% of respondents blaming Republicans against 37% for Democrats. Among independents, Trump’s blame exceeds that of Democrats, showing a nearly 3-to-1 margin.
- Reuters-Ipsos Poll: 50% blame Republicans, 43% blame Democrats.
- CNBC Poll: 53% blame Republicans, 37% blame Democrats.
- Independents: 58% blame Trump, 21% blame Democrats.
Historical Context of Shutdowns
The previous longest shutdowns occurred in 1995-96 and 2018-19, both of which involved Republican policy demands. In both instances, the GOP initially faced negative public sentiment. Pre-shutdown polling indicated an 11-point advantage for Democrats in 1995-96 and a 14-15 point lead in 2018-19 regarding blame. Over time, as these shutdowns persisted, support for the GOP dwindled substantially.
Democrats’ Position and Future Implications
Currently, public interest is aligned with the Democrats’ demands, particularly regarding healthcare subsidies. The Reuters-Ipsos poll shows 72% of Americans support extending these subsidies, with 51% of Republicans also in favor. The challenge remains whether this support will justify the continuation of the shutdown.
Upcoming Deadlines and Potential Outcomes
Key deadlines loom, most notably November 1, when open enrollment for Obamacare begins. Should Democrats choose to negotiate before this date, they may pressure Republicans to address the imminent rise in premiums due to the lapse of subsidies.
Potential scenarios suggest that Democrats may calculate their future actions based on polling data and public sentiments surrounding health care costs. Their decision could either strengthen their position or jeopardize their standing among constituents who want assertive leadership.
The situation remains fluid, and the outcomes over the next 10 days will likely shape the ongoing narrative of the shutdown. As Democrats continue to play the blame game, their strategic choices may influence public perception and implications for future negotiations.