Storm Catherine set to shake up the Irish political scene
As Storm Catherine approaches, it is set to create significant waves in the Irish political landscape. The election campaign reaches its climax as independent candidate Catherine Connolly appears to be surging ahead in polls. The latest survey conducted by Red C, published by the Business Post, indicates that Connolly is poised to win the presidential election.
Election Polling Insights
The Red C poll shows Connolly leading with 44 percent, significantly ahead of Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, who stands at 25 percent. This remarkable 19-point lead has remained consistent following a previous poll by The Irish Times Ipsos B&A. With the election just a day away, the results suggest a strong likelihood of Connolly winning in the first count.
Voter Sentiment and Turnout
Interestingly, 21 percent of voters remain undecided. However, experts predict that many of these individuals will ultimately abstain from voting, having minimal impact on the overall outcome. The poll also predicts that Jim Gavin, representing Fianna Fáil, might capture around 10 percent of the votes. Should he achieve 12.5 percent, it could allow his party to recover €250,000 in expenses.
Younger Voter Mobilization
The current campaign has engaged younger voters, drawing momentum from previous referendums such as Repeal and Together for Yes. This movement mobilized over 15,000 supporters, particularly through social media outreach. Consequently, there’s a strong incentive for younger demographics to participate in the election.
Notable Events in the Campaign
As the final day of campaigning unfolds, Connolly will visit Roscommon before heading to her hometown of Galway for a closing rally. She has scheduled visits to local schools and businesses in Castlerea and will engage with community groups in Roscommon. The campaign climax will occur at the Galway Bay Hotel in Salthill, where prominent political figures, including Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik, are expected to rally support.
Meanwhile, Heather Humphreys is making her final rounds in Sligo before moving on to Donegal for a series of swift engagements. The atmosphere remains tense as Ireland braces for what may be a transformative election outcome against the backdrop of Storm Catherine.
Anticipated Election Outcomes
- Catherine Connolly: 44%
- Heather Humphreys: 25%
- Jim Gavin: 10% (needs 12.5% to recover expenses)
- Undecided Voters: 21%
The potential for spoiling votes also looms, with past elections recording spoiled votes at 1.2 percent in 2018 and 1 percent in 2011. This election has ignited a campaign urging people to cast spoiled ballots, a response to discontent among some voter factions.
Looking ahead, the dynamics of this election campaign reveal a shift in voter behaviors, particularly influenced by younger generations. As Ireland prepares for the election amidst Storm Catherine, the implications of the results could reshape the political landscape for years to come.
