Trump Administration to Release September Inflation Data Amid Government Shutdown

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September inflation data on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This announcement comes amid an ongoing government shutdown, which began on October 1. It will be the first major economic report since the shutdown started.

Expectations for September Inflation Data

Economists from Dow Jones and Bloomberg anticipate that the annual inflation rate will increase to 3.1% for the 12 months ending in September. This figure reflects a persistent inflation rate that has exceeded 3% for over two years.

• The Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate is 2%.
• Wages have recently reached a post-pandemic high, yet many consumers report that rising prices continue to outpace wage growth.

Consumer Sentiment and Price Concerns

Recent surveys indicate that inflation and rising prices have become major concerns for consumers. According to the Conference Board’s September survey, inflation surpassed tariffs as the leading concern among respondents. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s surveys revealed a 22% drop in overall consumer sentiment compared to the same month last year.

Implications for Economic Policy

The Trump administration’s trade policies significantly influence both Wall Street and Main Street. Bank of America economists recently noted that tariffs are likely to contribute to ongoing price inflation in the coming quarters. They expect that a decline in used-car prices could help moderate the overall inflation rates reported.

Factors Impacting Future Inflation Trends

Goldman Sachs analysts predict an increase in headline inflation, mainly due to higher gasoline prices, while food inflation is expected to remain high. The forthcoming CPI data will likely impact U.S. markets profoundly, especially given the blackout on government economic data.

This release precedes the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 28-29, where policymakers will evaluate whether to lower interest rates. Additionally, the CPI data will play a crucial role in determining the Social Security Administration’s annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026, which has also been delayed due to the government shutdown.