New Jersey Election: Latest Polls Reveal 10-Day Countdown Results
The race for the New Jersey governorship is heating up as Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill shows a slight lead over Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli. Recent polling indicates Sherrill leads by 5 percentage points, with 49% support compared to Ciattarelli’s 44%.
Importance of the Election
This gubernatorial election is significant as New Jersey is one of only two states, alongside Virginia, conducting elections for governor this year. Voters will choose a successor to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is completing his second and final term.
New Jersey has traditionally favored Democratic candidates in statewide elections. Republicans last won the governor’s office in 2013, and the state has consistently supported Democratic presidential candidates since 1988. However, notable changes have emerged, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s improved GOP performance in New Jersey during the 2024 election, which saw a ten-point gain over 2020, marking the best showing for Republicans in two decades.
Current Polling Insights
A series of polls conducted between late September and mid-October reveal a competitive environment. Sherrill’s lead in these surveys fluctuates:
- Rutgers-Eagleton: Sherrill leads 50% to 45%
- Fox News: Sherrill 50%, Ciattarelli 45%
- Quinnipiac: Sherrill 50%, Ciattarelli 44%
- Fairleigh Dickinson University: Sherrill 52%, Ciattarelli 45%
- John Zogby Strategies: Sherrill 50%, Ciattarelli 42%
- KAConsulting: Sherrill 47%, Ciattarelli 44%
- Quantus Insights: Sherrill 48%, Ciattarelli 46%
- Trafalgar Group/Insider Advantage: Sherrill 45%, Ciattarelli 44%
- Neighborhood Research Corporation: Tied at 44%
Political observers note that despite Sherrill’s current lead, voter sentiments can shift rapidly. Partisan loyalty remains strong, with 95% of Democrats backing Sherrill and 94% of Republicans supporting Ciattarelli. Independents are more divided, with 49% leaning towards Sherrill and 40% for Ciattarelli.
Demographics and Key Issues
Gender and education are pivotal in shaping the election. Analysis from Rutgers-Eagleton indicates the following:
- Women support Sherrill by an 18-point margin.
- White non-Hispanic voters prefer Ciattarelli by 7 points.
- Sherrill commands a substantial lead among nonwhite voters, 59% to 29%.
- College-educated voters favor Sherrill by 26 points.
- Ciattarelli is more popular among those with lesser educational attainment.
Age also plays a role in voter preference. Sherrill leads among seniors (61% to 36%) but faces tougher competition from younger demographics.
Trump’s Impact on the Race
Former President Trump’s influence looms large in the New Jersey race. Polls reveal that 52% of voters consider Trump a “major factor” in their decision-making process. Sherrill has openly criticized Trump’s connection to Ciattarelli, labeling him as aligned with Trump’s agenda.
Favorability ratings show Sherrill at 43% favorable and 38% unfavorable, while Ciattarelli has 39% favorable and 46% unfavorable.
Looking Ahead
The election is set for November 4. As both campaigns move forward, the dynamics of voter loyalty and emerging issues will undoubtedly influence the final outcome. This election will serve as a crucial test for both parties in shaping the political landscape in New Jersey and beyond.
