Early Voting Data Reveals Trends for NYC, Virginia, New Jersey Elections

Recent data from early voting for the upcoming elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City reveals significant trends shaping the political landscape. This analysis highlights crucial differences in voter turnout and demographic engagement, particularly among younger voters.

New Jersey’s Democratic Momentum

In New Jersey, Democratic candidates are experiencing a robust turnout ahead of the November elections. The early voting period shows that Democrats have outperformed Republicans in both mail-in and early in-person voting.

• Democrats lead registered Republicans by over 41 points in mail ballot returns.
• This surpasses the 39-point lead recorded at the same point last year.
• For the first time, Democrats hold a nearly 2-point advantage in early in-person voting.

US Representative Mikie Sherrill is in a favorable position, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris last year, when she secured New Jersey by a margin of about 6 points. The increased turnout among registered Democrats indicates a shifting electorate.

Demographics of Early Voters

Among voters in New Jersey, older demographics are exhibiting higher participation rates this cycle. Meanwhile, younger voters are also making their presence felt, particularly in urban areas where they typically lean Democratic.

Trends in New York City

In New York City, early voting data suggests that Andrew Cuomo may be in a stronger position than expected. However, there is also a noticeable surge in engagement from younger voters, crucial to his opponent Zohran Mamdani’s success.

• Approximately 53% of registered Democratic voters are aged 50 and above.
• Younger voters aged 18 to 29 account for nearly 16% of the Democratic voting base.
• Turnout among younger voters has consistently increased throughout the early voting period.

The rise in younger voters compared to previous elections is noteworthy, as they represent 10% more of the electorate than in the last mayoral election in 2021. Daily turnout among younger voters improved significantly, reducing the gap with older voters from 50 to below 20 percentage points.

Virginia’s Political Landscape

In Virginia, the early voting data reflects Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger’s slightly favorable standing as compared to Harris’s position last year, when she won by less than 6 points.

• The distribution of early in-person votes has shown a slight bias towards Republican voters.
• Mail ballots now represent 24% of the pre-election votes, up from 21% last year.
• Harris-won counties are currently at 57% of their in-person voting from last year, while Trump-won counties are at around 61%.

The gap in turnout between Republican and Democratic areas has been narrowing, indicating a potential shift in voter engagement as more polling locations open in Democratic strongholds like Arlington and Fairfax.

Looking Ahead

As the elections draw near, the early voting data paints a complex picture. Continued analysis will be essential in understanding how these trends will influence the outcomes on Election Day, November 4, 2024. The evolving dynamics among voter demographics, particularly younger electors, may prove pivotal in the competitive landscapes of New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City.