Purdue’s Braden Smith: Key to Winning College Basketball Title?
Predicting the winner of a college basketball championship is a challenging task. With numerous teams competing and the single-elimination setup of the NCAA Tournament, one loss can spell disaster. Historically, only four of the last 15 national champions have started the season with odds shorter than +1200. The last to do so was Baylor at +800 for the 2020-21 season.
Purdue’s Title Prospects for 2025-26
The current favorite for the upcoming 2025-26 season is Purdue, opening with odds around +850 at ESPN BET. These odds vary across sportsbooks, ranging from +750 to +950. Close behind are Houston, often sharing the favorite’s spotlight with odds of +850 at ESPN BET and +950 at DraftKings.
“Looking at favorites with odds of nine-and-a-half to one signals a wide-open championship landscape,” stated Johnny Avello, the sportsbook director at DraftKings. He emphasized the difficulty in selecting a definitive winner in such a competitive field.
Other Contenders
- Duke: +1100 at ESPN BET
- UConn: +1400
- Kentucky: +1500
Duke has experienced fluctuating odds this offseason, initially opening at +850 before dropping to +1400 due to the loss of all five starters to the NBA Draft. Among them was the highly touted Cooper Flagg, the first overall pick.
Beyond traditional player departures, the transfer portal is now a significant factor affecting championship predictions. “Determining a championship winner is more complicated than ever,” noted Patrick Berbert, a college basketball trader at Caesars. “Adjustments rely on player transfers, which can change team dynamics.”
Purdue’s Rise in Odds
Purdue’s odds have seen a remarkable shift, propelled by strong offseason performance, going from +2000 to +750 at Caesars. BetMGM reports that Purdue, Houston, Duke, and Kentucky are their financial frontrunners, indicating where significant bets are being wagered.
Last Season’s Underdogs
The previous season saw Florida emerge as a surprise champion, entering the regular season with odds of +6000. Their journey included impressive performances in both nonconference and SEC play, eventually becoming one of the top seeds in March Madness.
Identifying Sleepers for the 2025-26 Season
With Florida now at +1600 for the national title, the focus shifts to potential sleeper teams. BYU, following a Sweet Sixteen finish last season, stands at +2200. Other noteworthy programs include:
- UCLA: +2800
- Arizona: +4000
If these teams perform well early in the season, expect significant shifts in their odds as they attract betting interest.
Braden Smith and the Wooden Award
Purdue’s Braden Smith is a frontrunner for the Wooden Award, currently favored at +450 with some sportsbooks listing him as low as +285. His potential to break the NCAA assists record could heighten his visibility among voters, especially if Purdue maintains strong performance.
Competitive freshmen also shine in this year’s odds, including:
- Darryn Peterson (Kansas): +750
- Cameron Boozer (Duke): +1000
Smith and Peterson are considered BetMGM’s largest liabilities, indicating significant betting activity on their success.
The upcoming college basketball season is poised for excitement, with teams like Purdue, Houston, and emerging contenders ready to make their mark.
