NYC Mayoral Race Heats Up as Mamdani Leads and Cuomo Closes the Gap in Latest Polls

The NYC mayoral race is intensifying as the election approaches in just over 48 hours. Polls indicate that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is experiencing a tighter race against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent candidate.

Current Polling Dynamics

Recent surveys show varying margins between the candidates. An AtlasIntel poll published on November 1 reveals Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has reduced to 6.6 points. This is the narrowest margin Mamdani has faced since July.

Key Polling Results

• The AtlasIntel poll showed Mamdani at 44% and Cuomo at 37.4%.
• A Suffolk University poll from October 27 reported Mamdani leading 44% to 34%, with a previous survey indicating a 10-point gap.
• A Quinnipiac poll also indicated a 10-point gap between the candidates, down from a 13-point advantage for Mamdani in September.

Cuomo commented on his rising support, stating, “He’s coming down, and I’m going up, and that is always good news” during an appearance on Fox News.

Disparities in Polls

A sponsored Fox News poll taken from October 24-28 displays a larger gap, with Mamdani at 47% and Cuomo at 31%. This gap has decreased from a previous poll conducted on September 25, where Mamdani led by 18 points.

• September 25: Mamdani 45%, Cuomo 27%.
• October 24-28: Mamdani 47%, Cuomo 31%.

The polls suggest that Cuomo has attracted voters who initially supported former Mayor Eric Adams, who recently dropped out of the race.

Voter Turnout Trends

Early voting data indicates a significant turnout among older voters. Preliminary findings from amNewYork suggest that individuals aged 60 and older represented a large segment of the 400,000 ballots cast early between October 25 and 30. Cuomo has been particularly popular among this demographic.

Analysts’ Outlook

Political analysts are monitoring the closing days of the campaign closely to see if the remaining gap can be further closed. According to The New York Times, as of November 2, Mamdani still holds a lead, although it fluctuates across various polls.

• Some polls show Mamdani maintaining a roughly 10-point edge over Cuomo.
• Others suggest his lead could exceed 20 points.

Additionally, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is witnessing increased support, recorded at 15% in the latest Fox News poll, up from 11%. The AtlasIntel poll places him significantly higher at 24%.

As the race progresses, the evolving dynamics are likely to influence voter decisions in these final hours before the election.