Did Inflation Ease Under Donald Trump’s Leadership? Fact Check Results
The economic landscape during Donald Trump’s presidency has been a point of contention, especially regarding inflation. Trump’s assertions claim improvements in multiple economic sectors, particularly energy and food prices. Various statements from both Trump and his administration officials highlighted a belief that inflation was on the decline.
Trump’s Economic Claims
During his speeches, Trump emphasized notable drops in energy costs. On October 28, while addressing military personnel aboard the USS George Washington in Japan, he stated, “Energy costs are way down,” referring specifically to gasoline and grocery prices. The following day, he indicated that inflation had reached a low of 2.7%, although the actual figure was 3%.
Administration Statements
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed Trump’s sentiments on inflation, stating on October 26 that prices for key commodities, like eggs and gasoline, had decreased since Trump took office. However, the assertion that overall inflation had declined was significantly more complex.
Understanding Inflation Metrics
To evaluate inflation, economists often reference the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of consumer goods over time. The CPI showed that inflation was consistent at 3% in September, unchanged from January. This period included fluctuations in the inflation rate, which began increasing again in mid-2025.
Comparison of Inflation Rates
- December 2024 (Biden’s last month): 2.9%
- January 2025 (Trump’s start): 3%
- September 2025: 3% (current rate during Trump’s presidency)
Despite Trump’s claims, the overall inflation rate did not decrease during his initial months in office. Critics argue that historical trends indicate rising inflation, particularly under Trump’s administration.
Excluding Food and Energy Costs
When excluding volatile food and energy prices, the inflation rate displayed a slight decrease. As of September, the inflation rate minus these items was reported at 3%, slightly down from 3.2% in December 2024.
Wages and Inflation Comparison
Importantly, wage growth has outpaced inflation under Trump. This contrasts with the experience during Biden’s earlier tenure, where wage growth lagged behind rising costs. However, experts caution that ongoing tariff policies could threaten this wage inflation balance in the longer term.
Conclusion
While Trump and his administration maintain that inflation has declined overall, the figures tell a more complicated story. Although removing food and energy costs shows some easing, the fundamental inflation rate remained stagnant at 3%. Economists advise caution in interpreting these data points as Trump’s presidency continues.
