How Notre Dame’s Path to the College Football Playoff is Shaped by the Top 25 Rankings

Notre Dame’s initial placement at No. 10 in the College Football Playoff (CFP) Top 25 marks a significant moment in their pursuit of a postseason berth. This positioning suggests that the Irish have a plausible path to the CFP, needing four more victories to solidify their chances.

Notre Dame’s Road to the CFP

The Irish are currently the highest-ranked two-loss team in the CFP rankings. They outpace three one-loss teams: Virginia (No. 14), Louisville (No. 15), and Georgia Tech (No. 17). Their single Top 25 victory came against No. 19 USC, where they won 34-24. Head Coach Marcus Freeman emphasizes focusing on immediate games rather than the rankings.

Upcoming Challenges

Looking ahead, Notre Dame is favored to win by 20 points in three of their next games. Their only challenging matchup appears to be against No. 24 Pittsburgh on November 15, which could be a closer contest.

Possible Playoff Outlook

If Notre Dame were to make the playoffs, their projections suggest they might face No. 7 BYU first. The Athletic’s model predicts a 9.5-point advantage for the Irish in that matchup. If they advance, a likely quarterfinals clash could be against No. 2 Indiana, considered a favorable matchup by analysts.

Ranking and Bid Implications

With four weeks left in the season, it’s uncertain whether a record of 10-2 guarantees Notre Dame a playoff spot. The Athletic’s model places the Irish’s chances at an 81% likelihood of making the field. They must also be wary of programs like Texas and Oklahoma, both of which could leapfrog them in the rankings.

Challenges from Other Programs

• No. 11 Texas could climb by winning against strong opponents like No. 5 Georgia.
• No. 13 Oklahoma faces tough matchups with No. 4 Alabama and LSU.
• Current rankings indicate that teams like BYU and Oregon must also be monitored closely.

For the Irish to host a CFP game, climbing to No. 8 in the rankings may be necessary. This would require favorable outcomes from remaining games, including potential losses by teams currently ranked higher.

Head-to-Head Considerations

Even though Notre Dame lost to Miami in their season opener, both teams now share the same record. However, Miami’s inconsistency could prevent them from catching up with the Irish in the CFP rankings.

Conclusion

Overall, Notre Dame stands at a crucial juncture in its season. Their upcoming games will dictate their postseason fate. While current prospects are promising, vigilance regarding other programs will be essential for their playoff aspirations.