Ranking NFL Teams: Playoff Contenders vs. Pretenders in Nine Tiers
The 2025 NFL season is in full swing, and the playoff race is intensifying. To analyze the standings and the playoff potential of all 32 teams, ESPN’s Seth Walder categorized them into nine tiers. This classification ranges from those likely to compete for the Super Bowl to teams already looking to the future. Examining a team’s strength, injuries, tiebreakers, and future schedules offers a deeper understanding than just their win-loss record.
Ranking NFL Teams: Playoff Contenders vs. Pretenders
Walder’s tier system not only ranks the teams but also highlights their tangible second-half goals as they aim for success. This is crucial since the overall statistics feed directly into playoff potential based on ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Tier 1: True Super Bowl Contenders
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Chances to make playoffs: 96.2%
- Chances to win NFC East: 94.3%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 18.9%
- Goal: Secure top seed in NFC.
- Los Angeles Rams
- Chances to make playoffs: 93.3%
- Chances to win NFC West: 50.5%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 20%
- Goal: Earn home-field advantage.
- Buffalo Bills
- Chances to make playoffs: 91%
- Chances to win AFC East: 36.9%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 15.8%
- Goal: Earn AFC’s No. 1 seed.
- Seattle Seahawks
- Chances to make playoffs: 89.8%
- Chances to win NFC West: 33.7%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 10.5%
- Goal: Improve run game efficiency.
Tier 2: Super Bowl Contenders – If They Make the Playoffs
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Chances to make playoffs: 75.3%
- Chances to win AFC West: 27%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 16.7%
- Goal: Enhance pass rush.
- Detroit Lions
- Chances to make playoffs: 78.2%
- Chances to win NFC North: 35%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 12.7%
- Goal: Establish offensive identity.
Tier 3: (Almost) Playoff Locks
- Indianapolis Colts
- Chances to make playoffs: 96%
- Chances to win AFC South: 86.7%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 21.3%
- Goal: Strengthen defensive consistency.
- New England Patriots
- Chances to make playoffs: 94.4%
- Chances to win AFC East: 63.1%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 8.9%
- Goal: Protect quarterback.
Tier 4: Likely In, Barring a Collapse
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Chances to make playoffs: 89.7%
- Chances to win NFC South: 87.7%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 8.5%
- Goal: Recover from injuries.
Tier 5: We’re Leaning Yes
- Denver Broncos
- Chances to make playoffs: 85.8%
- Chances to win NFC West: 15.9%
- Chances to make Super Bowl: 10.3%
- Goal: Improve special teams.
Lower Tiers: Struggling Teams
Teams in lower tiers are facing uphill battles with limited playoff chances:
- Minnesota Vikings – 7.4% to make playoffs
- Atlanta Falcons – 2% to make playoffs
- Washington Commanders – 0.3% to make playoffs
As the regular season progresses, these tiers illustrate the ever-changing landscape of the NFL and highlight which teams are playoff contenders versus pretenders. With each game, the scenarios can shift dramatically. The coming weeks are vital for all teams as they strive for a chance at the postseason.
