Nitto ATP Finals Preview: Musetti vs. De Minaur – Prediction & Head-to-Head
The Nitto ATP Finals continue with an exciting match between Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur. Both players are eager for their first victory in the 2025 tournament, hosted in Turin. Musetti, after unexpectedly stepping in for Novak Djokovic, faced a tough challenge in his opening match against Taylor Fritz, suffering a straight-sets loss (3-6, 4-6). De Minaur was defeated by the top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz with scores of 6-7 (7-5), 2-6.
Match Preview: Musetti vs. De Minaur
Lorenzo Musetti enters this tournament as a surprising last-minute addition. Unfortunately, he struggled in his debut match, recording five double faults and winning just 66% of his first serves. His recent performances show a significant decline, having lost two of his last three matches on hard courts. Musetti’s only win during this stretch came against Stanislas Wawrinka in Athens.
Despite the setbacks, 2024 Olympic bronze medalist Musetti has had a remarkable year, achieving a career-high ranking of sixth in June. However, he has yet to secure a singles title in 2025, despite reaching the semi-finals in two of his last three hard-court tournaments. His first serve percentage stands at an impressive 74%, although he has committed 95 double faults this year.
On the other hand, Alex de Minaur is in search of a signature win after a competitive match against Alcaraz. Despite forcing a tiebreak in the first set, de Minaur struggled in the second, ultimately losing. He exhibited good form with no double faults but only managed to win 63% of his first serves.
Statistical Overview
- Musetti: Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz – 3-6, 4-6
- De Minaur: Round Robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz – 6-7 (7-5), 2-6
Head-to-Head Record
| Event | Result |
|---|---|
| Australian Open (2022) | de Minaur wins 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 |
| Queen’s Club Championship (2024) | Musetti wins 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Monte Carlo Open (2025) | Musetti wins 1-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Madrid Open (2025) | Musetti wins 6-4, 6-4 |
In their previous encounters, Musetti has shown resilience. However, de Minaur’s recent performances indicate he is on the verge of a breakthrough. Although Musetti holds a favorable head-to-head record, de Minaur’s strong play suggests potential for an upset.
Prediction
Our prediction leans toward de Minaur winning in three sets. While Musetti has had the upper hand recently, de Minaur’s skill and persistence may finally culminate in a victory on Tuesday. Fans should expect a thrilling match as both athletes look to secure their first win at the Nitto ATP Finals.
