2025-2026 Summer Forecast: What to Expect from December to February
The Bureau has released its long-range forecast for the summer of 2025-2026, detailing what to expect from December to February. This forecast outlines critical weather patterns and conditions impacting Australia.
Recent Weather Conditions
Recent climatic conditions showed that spring recorded warmer days and nights across much of the nation. Heatwaves particularly affected northern, central, and eastern Australia. Some southern regions experienced near-average temperatures. However, rainfall was below average in parts of the southeastern mainland, while overall, most areas saw average to above-average rainfall.
Tropical Cyclone Fina
- Date of Formation: November 19
- Location: Northeast of Darwin
- Category: Severe Category 3
- Impact: Passed within 50 km of Darwin, causing strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Soil and Water Levels
Soil moisture levels remained average to above average in much of northern and western Australia, including Tasmania. However, parts of New South Wales and southwestern Queensland reported below-average soil moisture. Currently, the total water storage in Australia is around 69%, with northern and eastern storages near capacity, while some southern and eastern areas are less than half full.
Streamflow Conditions
Streamflow rates in November were average to above average across northern Australia, western Tasmania, and scattered locations on the east coast. Conversely, some inland regions of the eastern seaboard, as well as eastern Victoria and northeastern Tasmania, experienced below-average streamflow.
Summer Forecast Details
Looking ahead, the forecast indicates several patterns:
- Below-average rainfall is expected for parts of the western and eastern inland regions.
- Equal chances of above or below average rainfall are anticipated along the east coast and in South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania.
- Daytime temperatures are predicted to be above average across the majority of the country.
- An increased likelihood of unusually warm days and nights, especially in northern Australia.
Increased Risk of Bushfires
Summer is the prime season for bushfires in southern Australia. This year, there is an elevated risk in various regions:
- Central northern New South Wales
- Much of southern Victoria
- Western and southern parts of Western Australia
Communities are advised to prepare and reassess their bushfire and emergency plans, monitoring local conditions even in areas with traditionally lower fire risks.
Ocean Influences
Forecasts suggest that sea surface temperatures will remain above average, particularly in the eastern Australian waters. Warmer oceans can lead to increased moisture and energy, enhancing storm severity and cyclonic activity. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is in decline, while a weak and short-lived La Niña is emerging in the tropical Pacific.
Summary of Forecast
The summer forecast for 2025-2026 anticipates:
- Below-average rainfall in western and eastern inland areas
- Uncertain rainfall for much of the east coast and southern states
- Warmer than average temperatures with heightened risk of extreme heat
- Increased bushfire risks in specific regions
For updated long-range forecasts and more detailed maps, visit Emegypt for the latest information.
