Bitcoin Struggles to Overcome Bearish Trend; Is $82K Still Possible?
Bitcoin is currently grappling with a bearish market trend while attempting to breach resistance levels between $91K and $93K. Following a significant rebound, the cryptocurrency remains in a corrective phase, indicating that upcoming price movements are crucial.
Bitcoin’s Technical Analysis
According to the daily chart, Bitcoin is trapped within a descending channel. The price has recently bounced off the $80K–$83K demand zone, marking a notable buyback. However, momentum has stagnated as it nears the lower boundary of the resistance area, specifically around $90K–$93K.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are currently sloping downwards, acting as resistance. Until Bitcoin exceeds these average levels, the overall trend remains bearish. A significant trend reversal would only be established if Bitcoin reclaims the range of $103K–$106K, which sits at a pivotal intersection of supply zones.
Resistance Levels and Market Dynamics
In the short-term, Bitcoin’s efforts to surpass the resistance at $91K–$93K have met with diminishing buying pressure. The 4-hour chart confirms that Bitcoin is eyeing a critical resistance area, influenced by the $92K bearish order block.
- If the resistance at $92K holds, a decline toward the $86K–$88K range is probable.
- The macro demand zone at $80K–$83K serves as the strongest support.
- A daily close above $93K could pave the way for a move towards $102K–$106K.
The upcoming weeks are vital. Bitcoin’s trajectory will determine if the current uptick turns into a comprehensive retracement or continues the broader downtrend.
Insights from On-Chain Analysis
On-chain metrics show that the $92K level embodies immediate resistance. Additionally, a more substantial barrier is positioned slightly above, primarily due to the average cost basis held by specific market participants. These metrics are crucial for defining support and resistance levels.
Current data illustrates a significant confluence of two buyer cohorts:
- The 1-week to 1-month buyers, who may sell to break even.
- The 6-month to 12-month holders, also positioned to exit at no loss.
Both groups have their realized prices converging around $96K–$97K, creating a formidable resistance block. Even if Bitcoin surpasses $92K, significant selling pressure could arise, particularly near the $96K–$97K range.
A decisive break above $97K is essential for indicating that the selling pressure has been absorbed and that Bitcoin may be poised for higher values.
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