Tennessee Special Congressional Election: Key Insights from AP Decision Notes

As the nation looks forward to the upcoming midterm elections in 2026, attention is firmly on the Tennessee special congressional election. This high-stakes race will take place in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a region that has been a Republican stronghold for years. The election occurs just weeks after Democrats achieved significant victories across the country.

Tennessee Special Congressional Election Overview

The special election is set for Tuesday, with polls closing at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. ET). This election will determine the successor to former Republican Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July 2023. House Republicans are eager to maintain their narrow majority, currently at 219 to 213.

Candidates

• Matt Van Epps (Republican): A West Point graduate and former Army pilot, Van Epps previously led the Tennessee Department of General Services. He won the October special primary against 10 competitors, backed by endorsements from figures like Donald Trump.
• Aftyn Behn (Democrat): Serving as a state representative, Behn gained attention for her progressive activism and was labeled by some as “Tennessee’s own AOC,” referencing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She narrowly secured her position as the Democratic nominee through a competitive primary.

Electoral Context

This district has a history of strong Republican support, with Donald Trump winning roughly 60% of the votes during the 2024 election. However, political dynamics may shift due to the diverse electorate, which includes parts of Democratic-leaning Davidson County, home to Nashville.

Campaign Spending and Strategies

Both candidates have ramped up their campaign efforts, with Van Epps initially spending over $348,000 and Behn roughly $168,000 prior to their respective primaries. Recent financial reports indicate that Van Epps raised an additional $590,000, while Behn topped $1 million in total contributions.

Voter Engagement and Turnout

Approximately 466,000 voters were registered in the 7th District as of late November 2024. Voter turnout was notable in past elections, with around 69% participation during the 2024 presidential election. Early voting has also been robust, with over 84,000 ballots cast before the special election.

Election Night Expectations

The counting of votes is expected to be efficient, with early results from previous primaries reported swiftly. Election officials will monitor developments, and a winner will be declared once it is clear that no further challenges could change the outcome.

This special election is significant as it will offer insights into party strengths before the midterm elections and will be closely watched by political analysts and party leaders alike.